Which candidate will be the next dean for the School of Information at the University of Michigan? is a new market on inkling, a futures prediction site. Most reassuring is the bottom ranking for “none of the above.”
It will be interesting to see how this particular example of the “wisdom of crowds” will play out. It may depend on how informed the traders are (not inside info, but how much they know about the candidates, UM, SI, and academics in general). Will the market prevail with a correct prediction, or prove the Despair, Inc, slogan “None of us is as dumb as all of us.”
Thanks to Ed Vielmetti for noticing this market and posting on his blog. For more information on prediction markets, see the Wikipedia article or this introduction by NewsFutures.com
Has anyone used this for gauging interest or likely success of a new library service or feature? Any thoughts on how successful it would be?